Dr.Hesham Mohamed El-Barmelgy

Alexandria, a city with a devastating history of catastrophic tsunamis, is extremely vulnerable to a new cataclysmic tsunamic event at any moment, especially with the current high density coastal communities and the rapidly increasing population rates. Most of the city’s inhabitants are living in low lying land, even below sea level. The hazard of being attacked by a tsunami has been classified by many scientists as ‘likely’ and the city has been identified as one of the ‘Mediterranean tsunami vulnerable cites,’ were there is a great need to implement mitigation and preparedness measures and an advanced tsunami warning system. Similar to Indonesia’s case, Egypt is confronted with many challenges, economic crises and fragile political and security situation, which obscure its focus from this tsunami risk. This paper aims to develop a practical strategic tsunami hazard analysis and risk assessment planning model on the city of Alexandria. The model will form the basis for sustainable development planners to create and utilise the appropriate tsunami planning measures and emergency evacuation plans for coastal tsunami prone areas. It would also help in calculating and predicting the amount of casualties that would occur in the case of a tsunami attack without any mitigation or preparedness measures. The paper aims to prove the criticality of the situation and to grasp the attention of the authorities to one of the disasters that would result in the death of an over million people.