, "Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.", The Lancet. Neurology, vol. 23, issue 10, pp. 973-1003, 2024. Abstract

BACKGROUND: Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990-2021.

METHODS: We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 people per year for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We also calculated burden of stroke attributable to 23 risk factors and six risk clusters (air pollution, tobacco smoking, behavioural, dietary, environmental, and metabolic risks) at the global and regional levels (21 GBD regions and Socio-demographic Index [SDI] quintiles), using the standard GBD methodology. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS: In 2021, stroke was the third most common GBD level 3 cause of death (7·3 million [95% UI 6·6-7·8] deaths; 10·7% [9·8-11·3] of all deaths) after ischaemic heart disease and COVID-19, and the fourth most common cause of DALYs (160·5 million [147·8-171·6] DALYs; 5·6% [5·0-6·1] of all DALYs). In 2021, there were 93·8 million (89·0-99·3) prevalent and 11·9 million (10·7-13·2) incident strokes. We found disparities in stroke burden and risk factors by GBD region, country or territory, and SDI, as well as a stagnation in the reduction of incidence from 2015 onwards, and even some increases in the stroke incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, countries with lower SDI, and people younger than 70 years. Globally, ischaemic stroke constituted 65·3% (62·4-67·7), intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 28·8% (28·3-28·8), and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 5·8% (5·7-6·0) of incident strokes. There were substantial increases in DALYs attributable to high BMI (88·2% [53·4-117·7]), high ambient temperature (72·4% [51·1 to 179·5]), high fasting plasma glucose (32·1% [26·7-38·1]), diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (23·4% [12·7-35·7]), low physical activity (11·3% [1·8-34·9]), high systolic blood pressure (6·7% [2·5-11·6]), lead exposure (6·5% [4·5-11·2]), and diet low in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (5·3% [0·5-10·5]).

INTERPRETATION: Stroke burden has increased from 1990 to 2021, and the contribution of several risk factors has also increased. Effective, accessible, and affordable measures to improve stroke surveillance, prevention (with the emphasis on blood pressure, lifestyle, and environmental factors), acute care, and rehabilitation need to be urgently implemented across all countries to reduce stroke burden.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

, "Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.", The Lancet. Public health, vol. 9, issue 10, pp. e729-e744, 2024. Abstract

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies.

METHODS: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework.

FINDINGS: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9-29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76-6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2-26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1-32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8-32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1-24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8-74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9-80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90-2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1-79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5-83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675-808) and 141 million (131-154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6-79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3-82·9) among females.

INTERPRETATION: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost.

FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Abdelkhalek, Z. S., S. M. Hussein, I. G. Mahmoud, A. Ramadan, M. A. Kamel, M. Y. Girgis, and M. A. Elmonem, "Expanding the genotypic and phenotypic spectrum of Egyptian children with maple syrup urine disease.", Scientific reports, vol. 14, issue 1, pp. 28391, 2024. Abstract

Maple Syrup Urine Disease (MSUD, OMIM# 248600) is an autosomal recessive inborn error of metabolism characterized by elevated branched chain amino acids (BCAA) leucine/isoleucine and valine in blood of affected children. The phenotypic and genotypic spectrum of MSUD is largely unreported in Egypt. We recruited ten patients (4 males/6 females, 2weeks-12years) from nine unrelated families with clinical and biochemical evidence of MSUD. We performed Sanger sequencing for the three most-commonly responsible genes: BCKDHA, BCKDHB and DBT and conducted exome sequencing for unresolved cases. Through Sanger sequencing, we detected eight homozygous pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants (four in BCKDHB, three in BCKDHA and one in DBT gene) in eight different families. The proband of family VI, who had no significant genetic findings by Sanger, had a peculiar phenotype and atypical radiological findings. His exome sequencing revealed a previously reported homozygous likely pathogenic variant in the RARS2 gene (NM_020320.5:c.1026G > A;p.(Met342Ile)) causing the mitochondrial-encephalopathy disorder pontocerebellar hypoplasia, type 6 (OMIM# 611523). Furthermore, the copy-number-variant analysis of the exome data revealed a biallelic duplication affecting exons 2-6 of the BCKDHB gene (GRCh38: Chr.6-g.80127496:80171441dup) evaluated as variant of uncertain significance but expected to cause a breakpoint and may disrupt gene function, which can explain the markedly elevated BCAA levels in the patient's blood. In conclusion, we expanded the genotypic and phenotypic spectrum of the disease and showed that aggressive intervention with specific treatment in the first few days of life resulted in normal development even in a developing country setting. Inclusion of MSUD in the national newborn screening program in Egypt is highly recommended.

Amer, K., N. A. Soliman, S. Soror, Y. Z. Gad, A. Moustafa, M. A. Elmonem, M. Amer, A. Ragheb, A. M. I. R. A. KOTB, T. Taha, et al., "Egypt genome: Towards an African new genomic era.", Journal of advanced research, 2024. Abstract

BACKGROUND: Studying the human genome is crucial to embrace precision medicine through tailoring treatment and prevention strategies to the unique genetic makeup and molecular information of individuals. After human genome project (1990-2003) generated the first full sequence of a human genome, there have been concerns towards Northern bias due to underrepresentation of other populations. Multiple countries have now established national genome projects aiming at the genomic knowledge that can be harnessed from their populations, which in turn can serve as a basis for their health care policies in the near future.

AIM OF REVIEW: The intention is to introduce the recently established Egypt Genome (EG) to delineate the genomics and genetics of both the modern and Ancient Egyptian populations. Leveraging genomic medicine to improve precision medicine strategies while building a solid foundation for large-scale genomic research capacity is the fundamental focus of EG.

KEY SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS: EG generated genomic knowledge is predicted to enrich the existing human genome and to expand its diversity by studying the underrepresented African/Middle Eastern populations. The insightful impact of EG goes beyond Egypt and Africa as it fills the knowledge gaps in health and disease genomics towards improved and sustainable genomic-driven healthcare systems for better outcomes. Promoting the integration of genomics into clinical practice and spearheading the implementation of genomic-driven healthcare and precision medicine is therefore a key focus of EG. Mining into the wealth of Ancient Egyptian Genomics to delineate the genetic bridge between the contemporary and Ancient Egyptian populations is another excitingly unique area of EG to realize the global vision of human genome.

, "Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.", The Lancet. Neurology, vol. 23, issue 4, pp. 344-381, 2024. Abstract

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Elmonem, M. A., N. A. Soliman, A. Moustafa, Y. Z. Gad, W. A. Hassan, T. Taha, G. El-Feky, M. Sakr, and K. Amer, "The Egypt Genome Project.", Nature genetics, 2024.
Naguib, S., L. A. Mansour, N. A. Soliman, H. M. El-Hanafy, Y. A. Fahmy, M. A. Elmonem, and R. A. M. Halim, "Expanding the Genetic Spectrum of Gene Variants in Egyptian Patients with Primary Hyperoxaluria Type I.", Genetic testing and molecular biomarkers, vol. 28, issue 4, pp. 151-158, 2024. Abstract

Approximately 80% of primary hyperoxaluria cases are caused by primary hyperoxaluria type 1 (PH1, OMIM# 259900), which is characterized by pathogenic variants in the gene, resulting in deficiency of the liver-specific enzyme alanine-glyoxylate aminotransferase (AGT). This leads to increased production of oxalate, which cannot be effectively eliminated from the body, resulting in its accumulation primarily in the kidneys and other organs. This study included 17 PH1 Egyptian patients from 12 unrelated families, recruited from the Inherited Kidney Disease Outpatient Clinic and the Dialysis Units, Cairo University Hospitals, during the period from January 2018 to December 2019, aiming to identify the pathogenic variants in the gene. Six different variants were detected. These included three frameshift and three missense variants, all found in homozygosity within the respective families. The most common variant was c.121G>A;p.(Gly41Arg) detected in four families, followed by c.725dup;p.(Asp243GlyfsTer12) in three families, c.33dup;p.(Lys12Glnfs156) in two families, and c.731T >C;p.(Ile244Thr), c.33delC;p.(Lys12Argfs34), and c.568G>A;p.(Gly190Arg) detected in one family each. Consanguineous Egyptian families with history of renal stones or renal disease suspicious of primary hyperoxaluria should undergo genetic sequencing, specifically targeting exons 1 and 7, as variants in these two exons account for >75% of disease-causing variants in Egyptian patients with confirmed PH1.

, "The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.", The Lancet. Global health, 2024. Abstract

BACKGROUND: The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS: In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION: The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS: For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Veys, K., M. A. Elmonem, L. van den Heuvel, W. A. Gahl, and E. Levtchenko, "Plasma chitotriosidase enzyme activity as a novel therapeutic monitor for cysteamine treatment in nephropathic cystinosis: A retrospective validation study.", Molecular genetics and metabolism, vol. 142, issue 1, pp. 108454, 2024. Abstract

BACKGROUND: Cystine-depleting therapy in nephropathic cystinosis is currently monitored via the white blood cell cystine assay, although its application and usefulness are limited by practical and technical issues. Therefore, alternative biomarkers that are widely available, more economical and less technically demanding, while reliably reflecting long-term adherence to cysteamine treatment, are desirable. Recently, we proposed chitotriosidase enzyme activity as a potential novel biomarker for the therapeutic monitoring of cysteamine treatment in cystinosis. In this study, we aimed to validate our previous findings and to confirm the value of chitotriosidase in the management of cystinosis therapy.

MATERIALS & METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 12 patients treated at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center and followed up for at least 2 years. Plasma chitotriosidase enzyme activity was correlated with corresponding clinical and biochemical data.

RESULTS: Plasma chitotriosidase enzyme activity significantly correlated with WBC cystine levels, cysteamine total daily dosage and a Composite compliance score. Moreover, plasma chitotriosidase was a significant independent predictor for WBC cystine levels, and cut-off values were established in both non-kidney transplanted and kidney transplanted cystinosis patients to distinguish patients with a good versus poor compliance with cysteamine treatment. Our observations are consistent with those of our previous study and validate our findings.

CONCLUSIONS: Chitotriosidase enzyme activity is a valid potential alternative biomarker for monitoring cysteamine treatment in nephropathic cystinosis patients.

SYNOPSIS: Chitotriosidase enzyme activity is a valid potential alternative biomarker for monitoring cysteamine treatment in nephropathic cystinosis patients.

, "Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.", Lancet (London, England), 2024. Abstract

BACKGROUND: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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