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Collaborators, G. B. D. D. M. 2019, "Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.", The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology, 2022. Abstract1-s2.0-s2213858721003491-main.pdf

BACKGROUND: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Collaborators, G. B. D. A. 2020, "Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020.", Lancet (London, England), vol. 400, issue 10347, pp. 185-235, 2022. Abstract

BACKGROUND: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

of Collaborators, L. B. D. E. A., "Mapping disparities in education across low-and middle-income countries", Nature, vol. 577, issue 7789: Nature Publishing Group, pp. 235, 2020. Abstract
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Collaborative, C. O. V. I. D. S., "{Delaying surgery for patients with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection}", British Journal of Surgery, vol. 107, no. 12, pp. e601-e602, 09, 2020. AbstractWebsite

{EditorWith at least 28 elective million operations delayed during the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of patients who will require surgery after a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is likely to increase rapidly1. Operating on patients with an active perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection is now known to carry a very high pulmonary complication and mortality rate2. Urgent information is needed to guide whether postponing surgery in patients with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection leads to a clinical benefit, and the optimal length of delay.The COVIDSurg-Cancer study was a prospective cohort study of patients undergoing curative elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic up to 24 May 20203. We performed a pre-planned subgroup analysis of patients undergoing surgery with previous SARS-CoV-2 positive swab that were not suspected to have active COVID-19 at the time of surgery. Propensity score matching was used to match previous SARS-CoV-2 swab positive patients to patients with no a positive swab test in a 1:4 ratio. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations of previous SARS-CoV-2 with rates of postoperative pulmonary complications and death in matched groups. Full methodology is available in the Appendix.}

Collaborative, G. S., W. group, P. representatives, S. analysis, P. development, project steering, N. leads(GlobalSurg-1), N. leads(GlobalSurg-2), L. collaborators(GlobalSurg-1), L. collaborators(GlobalSurg-2), et al., "{Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection}", BJS Open, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 403-414, 02, 2019. AbstractWebsite

{End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection.This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model.In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P \< 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P \< 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P \< 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P \< 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P \< 0·001).Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone.}

Collaborative, C. O. V. I. D. S., "{Global wealth disparities drive adherence to COVID-safe pathways in head and neck cancer surgery}", BJS Open, vol. 5, no. 6, 12, 2021. AbstractWebsite

{Dear EditorThe COVID-19 pandemic has had profound impacts on safe healthcare delivery, particularly within surgical specialties1. There has been clear evidence of pulmonary complications and death associated with surgery following perioperative COVID infection2,3. Mitigation of COVID-related risk for patients depends upon several primary tenets of safe surgery, including implementation of appropriate COVID-secure treatment pathways4, provision of adequate testing for patients to ensure COVID-negative status and protection of staff members through suitable personal protective equipment (PPE). Following the initial peaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection, healthcare service provision was afforded time for preparation and reorganization before subsequent waves of infection. An ability to use this window of opportunity was dependent not only on strategic decision making but also national financial resources and healthcare capabilities.}

Collaborative, C. O. V. I. D. S., "{Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score}", British Journal of Surgery, vol. 108, no. 11, pp. 1274-1292, 07, 2021. AbstractWebsite
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Collaborative, P. Gorg, "{Pancreatic surgery outcomes: multicentre prospective snapshot study in 67 countries}", British Journal of Surgery, pp. znad330, 11, 2023. AbstractWebsite

{Pancreatic surgery remains associated with high morbidity rates. Although postoperative mortality appears to have improved with specialization, the outcomes reported in the literature reflect the activity of highly specialized centres. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following pancreatic surgery worldwide.This was an international, prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional snapshot study of consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic operations worldwide in a 3-month interval in 2021. The primary outcome was postoperative mortality within 90 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships with Human Development Index (HDI) and other parameters.A total of 4223 patients from 67 countries were analysed. A complication of any severity was detected in 68.7 per cent of patients (2901 of 4223). Major complication rates (Clavien–Dindo grade at least IIIa) were 24, 18, and 27 per cent, and mortality rates were 10, 5, and 5 per cent in low-to-middle-, high-, and very high-HDI countries respectively. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate was 5.4 per cent (229 of 4223) overall, but was significantly higher in the low-to-middle-HDI group (adjusted OR 2.88, 95 per cent c.i. 1.80 to 4.48). The overall failure-to-rescue rate was 21 per cent; however, it was 41 per cent in low-to-middle- compared with 19 per cent in very high-HDI countries.Excess mortality in low-to-middle-HDI countries could be attributable to failure to rescue of patients from severe complications. The authors call for a collaborative response from international and regional associations of pancreatic surgeons to address management related to death from postoperative complications to tackle the global disparities in the outcomes of pancreatic surgery (NCT04652271; ISRCTN95140761).Pancreatic surgery can sometimes lead to health problems afterwards. Although some top hospitals report good results, it is not clear how patients are doing all over the world. The aim was to find out how people are recovering after pancreatic surgery in different countries, and to see whether where they live affects their health outcomes after pancreatic surgery. The health records of 4223 patients from 67 countries who had pancreatic surgery in a 3-month interval in 2021 were studied, especially looking at how many people faced serious complications or passed away within 90 days of the surgery. Almost 7 in 10 patients faced some health problems after operation. The chance of having a major health issue or dying after the surgery was higher in countries with fewer resources and less developed healthcare. For example, 10 of 100 patients died after the surgery in these countries, but only 5 of 100 patients did in richer countries. What stands out is that countries with fewer resources have a tougher time getting patients back to health when things go wrong after surgery. It is hoped that doctors and medical groups worldwide can work together to improve these outcomes and give everyone the best chance of recovering well after pancreatic surgery.}

Collaborative, C. O. V. I. D. S., "{Impact of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination on postoperative mortality in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection}", BJS Open, vol. 5, no. 6, 01, 2022. AbstractWebsite

{Dear EditorDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple theories were proposed based on the observation that countries with an ongoing national Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunization programme had lower SARS-CoV-2 case rates and COVID-19 mortality than countries that had stopped BCG vaccine administration. There was, however, no evidence supporting or disputing this theory1,2. Owing to the uncertainty on the role of BCG vaccine on the outcomes of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection, this international study aimed to determine whether previous BCG vaccination was associated with reduced postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) and 30-day mortality in patients undergoing surgery who developed SARS-CoV-2 infection.}

Collaborative, G. S., "Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in children: an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study", BMJ Global Health, vol. 5, no. 12: BMJ Specialist Journals, 2020. AbstractWebsite

Introduction Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). However, there is a lack of data available about SSI in children worldwide, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of SSI in children and associations between SSI and morbidity across human development settings.Methods A multicentre, international, prospective, validated cohort study of children aged under 16 years undergoing clean-contaminated, contaminated or dirty gastrointestinal surgery. Any hospital in the world providing paediatric surgery was eligible to contribute data between January and July 2016. The primary outcome was the incidence of SSI by 30 days. Relationships between explanatory variables and SSI were examined using multilevel logistic regression. Countries were stratified into high development, middle development and low development groups using the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI).Results Of 1159 children across 181 hospitals in 51 countries, 523 (45·1%) children were from high HDI, 397 (34·2%) from middle HDI and 239 (20·6%) from low HDI countries. The 30-day SSI rate was 6.3% (33/523) in high HDI, 12·8% (51/397) in middle HDI and 24·7% (59/239) in low HDI countries. SSI was associated with higher incidence of 30-day mortality, intervention, organ-space infection and other HAIs, with the highest rates seen in low HDI countries. Median length of stay in patients who had an SSI was longer (7.0 days), compared with 3.0 days in patients who did not have an SSI. Use of laparoscopy was associated with significantly lower SSI rates, even after accounting for HDI.Conclusion The odds of SSI in children is nearly four times greater in low HDI compared with high HDI countries. Policies to reduce SSI should be prioritised as part of the wider global agenda.

Collaborative, C. O. V. I. D. S., and G. S. Collaborative, "SARS-CoV-2 infection and venous thromboembolism after surgery: an international prospective cohort study", Anaesthesia, vol. 77, no. 1, pp. 28-39, 2022. AbstractWebsite

Summary SARS-CoV-2 has been associated with an increased rate of venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients. Since surgical patients are already at higher risk of venous thromboembolism than general populations, this study aimed to determine if patients with peri-operative or prior SARS-CoV-2 were at further increased risk of venous thromboembolism. We conducted a planned sub-study and analysis from an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study of elective and emergency patients undergoing surgery during October 2020. Patients from all surgical specialties were included. The primary outcome measure was venous thromboembolism (pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis) within 30 days of surgery. SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was defined as peri-operative (7 days before to 30 days after surgery); recent (1–6 weeks before surgery); previous (≥7 weeks before surgery); or none. Information on prophylaxis regimens or pre-operative anti-coagulation for baseline comorbidities was not available. Postoperative venous thromboembolism rate was 0.5% (666/123,591) in patients without SARS-CoV-2; 2.2% (50/2317) in patients with peri-operative SARS-CoV-2; 1.6% (15/953) in patients with recent SARS-CoV-2; and 1.0% (11/1148) in patients with previous SARS-CoV-2. After adjustment for confounding factors, patients with peri-operative (adjusted odds ratio 1.5 (95%CI 1.1–2.0)) and recent SARS-CoV-2 (1.9 (95%CI 1.2–3.3)) remained at higher risk of venous thromboembolism, with a borderline finding in previous SARS-CoV-2 (1.7 (95%CI 0.9–3.0)). Overall, venous thromboembolism was independently associated with 30-day mortality (5.4 (95%CI 4.3–6.7)). In patients with SARS-CoV-2, mortality without venous thromboembolism was 7.4% (319/4342) and with venous thromboembolism was 40.8% (31/76). Patients undergoing surgery with peri-operative or recent SARS-CoV-2 appear to be at increased risk of postoperative venous thromboembolism compared with patients with no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Optimal venous thromboembolism prophylaxis and treatment are unknown in this cohort of patients, and these data should be interpreted accordingly.

Collaborative, S. T. A. R. S., and C. O. V. I. D. S. Collaborative, "{Death following pulmonary complications of surgery before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic}", British Journal of Surgery, vol. 108, no. 12, pp. 1448-1464, 11, 2021. AbstractWebsite

{This study aimed to determine the impact of pulmonary complications on death after surgery both before and during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic.This was a patient-level, comparative analysis of two, international prospective cohort studies: one before the pandemic (January–October 2019) and the second during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (local emergence of COVID-19 up to 19 April 2020). Both included patients undergoing elective resection of an intra-abdominal cancer with curative intent across five surgical oncology disciplines. Patient selection and rates of 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications were compared. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. Mediation analysis using a natural-effects model was used to estimate the proportion of deaths during the pandemic attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection.This study included 7402 patients from 50 countries; 3031 (40.9 per cent) underwent surgery before and 4371 (59.1 per cent) during the pandemic. Overall, 4.3 per cent (187 of 4371) developed postoperative SARS-CoV-2 in the pandemic cohort. The pulmonary complication rate was similar (7.1 per cent (216 of 3031) versus 6.3 per cent (274 of 4371); P = 0.158) but the mortality rate was significantly higher (0.7 per cent (20 of 3031) versus 2.0 per cent (87 of 4371); P \< 0.001) among patients who had surgery during the pandemic. The adjusted odds of death were higher during than before the pandemic (odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95 per cent c.i. 1.58 to 4.67; P \< 0.001). In mediation analysis, 54.8 per cent of excess postoperative deaths during the pandemic were estimated to be attributable to SARS-CoV-2 (OR 1.73, 1.40 to 2.13; P \< 0.001).Although providers may have selected patients with a lower risk profile for surgery during the pandemic, this did not mitigate the likelihood of death through SARS-CoV-2 infection. Care providers must act urgently to protect surgical patients from SARS-CoV-2 infection.This study compared death rates in patients who developed pulmonary complications of surgery before and during the pandemic in two large, international studies. Patients who underwent surgery during the pandemic tended to be younger and fitter. Overall, 4.3 per cent were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection after surgery in the pandemic cohort. Deaths within 30 days after surgery tripled during the first wave of the pandemic (from 0.7 to 2.0 per cent), whereas the rate of pulmonary complications remained the similar (7.1 to 6.3 per cent). Over half of these excess deaths (54.8 per cent) were estimated to be related to SARS-CoV-2 infection.}

on Collaborative, G. H. R. G. C. ’s N. - C. D., "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with paediatric cancer in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, observational cohort study", BMJ Open, vol. 12, no. 4: British Medical Journal Publishing Group, 2022. AbstractWebsite

Objectives Paediatric cancer is a leading cause of death for children. Children in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) were four times more likely to die than children in high-income countries (HICs). This study aimed to test the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic had affected the delivery of healthcare services worldwide, and exacerbated the disparity in paediatric cancer outcomes between LMICs and HICs.Design A multicentre, international, collaborative cohort study.Setting 91 hospitals and cancer centres in 39 countries providing cancer treatment to paediatric patients between March and December 2020.Participants Patients were included if they were under the age of 18 years, and newly diagnosed with or undergoing active cancer treatment for Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, Wilms’ tumour, sarcoma, retinoblastoma, gliomas, medulloblastomas or neuroblastomas, in keeping with the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer.Main outcome measure All-cause mortality at 30 days and 90 days.Results 1660 patients were recruited. 219 children had changes to their treatment due to the pandemic. Patients in LMICs were primarily affected (n=182/219, 83.1%). Relative to patients with paediatric cancer in HICs, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 12.1 (95% CI 2.93 to 50.3) and 7.9 (95% CI 3.2 to 19.7) times the odds of death at 30 days and 90 days, respectively, after presentation during the COVID-19 pandemic (p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 15.6 (95% CI 3.7 to 65.8) times the odds of death at 30 days (p<0.001).Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic has affected paediatric oncology service provision. It has disproportionately affected patients in LMICs, highlighting and compounding existing disparities in healthcare systems globally that need addressing urgently. However, many patients with paediatric cancer continued to receive their normal standard of care. This speaks to the adaptability and resilience of healthcare systems and healthcare workers globally.Data are available on reasonable request. Deidentified date will be shared on request.