Forecasting Egyptian GDP Using ARIMA Models

Abonazel, M. R., and A. I. Abd-Elftah, "Forecasting Egyptian GDP Using ARIMA Models", Reports on Economics and Finance, vol. 5, issue 1, pp. 35 - 47, 2019.


The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is that the value of all products and services made at intervals the borders of a nation in an exceedingly year. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins approach has been used to build the appropriate Autoregressive-Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model for the Egyptian GDP data. Egypt’s annual GDP data obtained from the World-Bank for the years 1965 to 2016. We find that the appropriate statistical model for Egyptian GDP is ARIMA (1, 2, 1). Finally, we used the fitted ARIMA model to forecast the GDP of Egypt for the next ten years.



forecasting_egyptian_gdp_using_arima_models.pdf983.48 KB