Mahmoud ElFiky

SummaryBackground
Timely and safe elective health care facilitates return to normal activities for patients and prevents emergency admissions. Surgery is a cornerstone of elective care and relies on complex pathways. This study aimed to take a whole-system approach to evaluating access to and quality of elective health care globally, using inguinal hernia as a tracer condition.
Methods
This was a prospective, international, cohort study conducted between Jan 30 and May 21, 2023, in which any hospital performing inguinal hernia repairs was eligible to take part. Consecutive patients of any age undergoing primary inguinal hernia repair were included. A measurement set mapped to the attributes of WHO's Health System Building Blocks was defined to evaluate access (emergency surgery rates, bowel resection rates, and waiting times) and quality (mesh use, day-case rates, and postoperative complications). These were compared across World Bank income groups (high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries), adjusted for hospital and country. Factors associated with postoperative complications were explored with a three-level multilevel logistic regression model.
Findings
18 058 patients from 640 hospitals in 83 countries were included, of whom 1287 (7·1%) underwent emergency surgery. Emergency surgery rates increased from high-income to low-income countries (6·8%, 9·7%, 11·4%, 14·2%), accompanied by an increase in bowel resection rates (1·2%, 1·4%, 2·3%, 4·2%). Overall waiting times for elective surgery were similar around the world (median 8·0 months from symptoms to surgery), largely because of delays between symptom onset and diagnosis rather than waiting for treatment. In 14 768 elective operations in adults, mesh use decreased from high-income to low-income countries (97·6%, 94·3%, 80·6%, 61·0%). In patients eligible for day-case surgery (n=12 658), day-case rates were low and variable (50·0%, 38·0%, 42·1%, 44·5%). Complications occurred in 2415 (13·4%) of 18 018 patients and were more common after emergency surgery (adjusted odds ratio 2·06, 95% CI 1·72–2·46) and bowel resection (1·85, 1·31–2·63), and less common after day-case surgery (0·39, 0·34–0·44).
Interpretation
This study demonstrates that elective health care is essential to preventing over-reliance on emergency systems. We identified actionable targets for system strengthening: clear referral pathways and increasing mesh repair in lower-income settings, and boosting day-case surgery in all income settings. These measures might strengthen non-surgical pathways too, reducing the burden on society and health services.
Funding
NIHR Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery and Portuguese Hernia and Abdominal Wall Society (Sociedade Portuguesa de Hernia e Parede Abdominal).

SummaryBackground
Safe anaesthesia and surgery are a public health imperative. There are few data describing outcomes for children undergoing anaesthesia and surgery in Africa. We aimed to get robust epidemiological data to describe patient care and outcomes for children undergoing anaesthesia and surgery in hospitals in Africa.
Methods
This study was a 14-day, international, prospective, observational cohort study of children (aged <18 years) undergoing surgery in Africa. We recruited as many hospitals as possible across all levels of care (first, second, and third) providing surgical treatment. Each hospital recruited all eligible children for a 14-day period commencing on the date chosen by each participating hospital within the study recruitment period from Jan 15 to Dec 23, 2022. Data were collected prospectively for consecutive patients on paper case record forms. The primary outcome was in-hospital postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery and the secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality within 30 days after surgery. We also collected hospital-level data describing equipment, facilities, and protocols available. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05061407.
Findings
We recruited 8625 children from 249 hospitals in 31 African countries. The mean age was 6·1 (SD 4·9) years, with 5675 (66·0%) of 8600 children being male. Most children (6110 [71·2%] of 8579 patients) were from category 1 of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status score undergoing elective surgery (5325 [61·9%] of 8604 patients). Postoperative complications occurred in 1532 (18·0%) of 8515 children, predominated by infections (971 [11·4%] of 8538 children). Deaths occurred in 199 (2·3%) of 8596 patients, 169 (84·9%) of 199 patients following emergency surgeries. Deaths following postoperative complications occurred in 166 (10·8%) of 1530 complications. Operating rooms were reported as safe for anaesthesia and surgery for neonates (121 [54·3%] of 223 hospitals), infants (147 [65·9%] of 223 hospitals), and children younger than 6 years (188 [84·3%] of 223 hospitals).
Interpretation
Outcomes following anaesthesia and surgery for children in Africa are poor, with complication rates up to four-fold higher (18% vs 4·4–14%) and mortality rates 11-fold higher than high-income countries in a crude, unadjusted comparison (23·15 deaths vs 2·18 deaths per 1000 children). To improve surgical outcomes for children in Africa, we need health system strengthening, provision of safe environments for anaesthesia and surgery, and strategies to address the high rate of failure to rescue.
Funding
Jan Pretorius Research Fund of the South African Society of Anaesthesiologists and Association of Anesthesiologists of Uganda.

SummaryBackground
Pulmonary complications are the most common cause of death after surgery. This study aimed to derive and externally validate a novel prognostic model that can be used before elective surgery to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications and to support resource allocation and prioritisation during pandemic recovery.
Methods
Data from an international, prospective cohort study were used to develop a novel prognostic risk model for pulmonary complications after elective surgery in adult patients (aged ≥18 years) across all operation and disease types. The primary outcome measure was postoperative pulmonary complications at 30 days after surgery, which was a composite of pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unexpected mechanical ventilation. Model development with candidate predictor variables was done in the GlobalSurg-CovidSurg Week dataset (global; October, 2020). Two structured machine learning techniques were explored (XGBoost and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO]), and the model with the best performance (GSU-Pulmonary Score) underwent internal validation using bootstrap resampling. The discrimination and calibration of the score were externally validated in two further prospective cohorts: CovidSurg-Cancer (worldwide; February to August, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic) and RECON (UK and Australasia; January to October, 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic). The model was deployed as an online web application. The GlobalSurg-CovidSurg Week and CovidSurg-Cancer studies were registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04509986 and NCT04384926.
Findings
Prognostic models were developed from 13 candidate predictor variables in data from 86 231 patients (1158 hospitals in 114 countries). External validation included 30 492 patients from CovidSurg-Cancer (726 hospitals in 75 countries) and 6789 from RECON (150 hospitals in three countries). The overall rates of pulmonary complications were 2·0% in derivation data, and 3·9% (CovidSurg-Cancer) and 4·7% (RECON) in the validation datasets. Penalised regression using LASSO had similar discrimination to XGBoost (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC] 0·786, 95% CI 0·774–0·798 vs 0·785, 0·772–0·797), was more explainable, and required fewer covariables. The final GSU-Pulmonary Score included ten predictor variables and showed good discrimination and calibration upon internal validation (AUROC 0·773, 95% CI 0·751–0·795; Brier score 0·020, calibration in the large [CITL] 0·034, slope 0·954). The model performance was acceptable on external validation in CovidSurg-Cancer (AUROC 0·746, 95% CI 0·733–0·760; Brier score 0·036, CITL 0·109, slope 1·056), but with some miscalibration in RECON data (AUROC 0·716, 95% CI 0·689–0·744; Brier score 0·045, CITL 1·040, slope 1·009).
Interpretation
This novel prognostic risk score uses simple predictor variables available at the time of a decision for elective surgery that can accurately stratify patients’ risk of postoperative pulmonary complications, including during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. It could inform surgical consent, resource allocation, and hospital-level prioritisation as elective surgery is upscaled to address global backlogs.
Funding
National Institute for Health Research.

{Identification of patients at high risk of surgical-site infections may allow surgeons to minimize associated morbidity. However, there are significant concerns regarding the methodological quality and transportability of models previously developed. The aim of this study was to develop a novel score to predict 30-day surgical-site infection risk after gastrointestinal surgery across a global context and externally validate against existing models.This was a secondary analysis of two prospective international cohort studies: GlobalSurg-1 (July–November 2014) and GlobalSurg-2 (January–July 2016). Consecutive adults undergoing gastrointestinal surgery were eligible. Model development was performed using GlobalSurg-2 data, with novel and previous scores externally validated using GlobalSurg-1 data. The primary outcome was 30-day surgical-site infections, with two predictive techniques explored: penalized regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (‘LASSO’)) and machine learning (extreme gradient boosting (‘XGBoost’)). Final model selection was based on prognostic accuracy and clinical utility.There were 14 019 patients (surgical-site infections = 12.3\%) for derivation and 8464 patients (surgical-site infections = 11.4\%) for external validation. The LASSO model was selected due to similar discrimination to extreme gradient boosting (AUC 0.738 (95\% c.i. 0.725 to 0.750) versus 0.737 (95\% c.i. 0.709 to 0.765)), but greater explainability. The final score included six variables: country income, ASA grade, diabetes, and operative contamination, approach, and duration. Model performance remained good on external validation (AUC 0.730 (95\% c.i. 0.715 to 0.744); calibration intercept −0.098 and slope 1.008) and demonstrated superior performance to the external validation of all previous models.The ‘Global Surgical-Site Infection’ score allows accurate prediction of the risk of surgical-site infections with six simple variables that are routinely available at the time of surgery across global settings. This can inform the use of intraoperative and postoperative interventions to modify the risk of surgical-site infections and minimize associated harm.This study is about finding ways to predict if someone will get an infection after having surgery on their stomach and intestines. If doctors know who is at high risk of getting an infection, they can take steps to prevent it and help the patient recover faster. The researchers used information from patients who had surgery all over the world to try to make a way to score how likely someone is to get infection in their wound from surgery. They did this in two different ways, then picked the one that was best at picking up infections, while still being easy to use. They then compared the new score against older scores to check if it really was better or not. The researchers found that their new score was good at predicting who might get an infection using just six bits of information on the patient. This new score worked even better than older scores when these were compared all together. This means that doctors can use this new score to check who is most likely to get an infection after surgery and so can take extra steps during and after the surgery to try and stop these from happening. Because the score is so simple, this is easy to use all around the world.}

Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres.This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries.In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia.This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries.The effects of climate change need urgent action. Most countries and organizations have made commitments to reduce carbon. Healthcare, and especially surgery, is responsible for producing a large amount of carbon and for other behaviours that are harmful to the environment. The aim of this study was to identify the most practical and safe interventions to make surgery more environmentally friendly. Interventions to achieve green surgery were found in the literature and added to a list. The list was ordered and shortened, following advice of doctors and patients. The safest and most practical interventions were at the top. The top three areas for change were to reduce the use of one-use items and energy, recycle, and manage waste appropriately. There are several ways that we can make surgery greener. The list produced gives us practical examples of what can be done.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common condition in children. Complete fundoplication provides better reflux control but it results in more dysphagia and gas-bloat symptoms. Antireflux surgery without wrap has fewer adverse effects but a higher failure rate in controlling reflux. Until now, there is little evidence as to whether complete or partial fundoplication is the optimal procedure in this age group.

BackgroundThis study assessed the potential cost-effectiveness of high (80–100%) vs low (21–35%) fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) at preventing surgical site infections (SSIs) after abdominal surgery in Nigeria, India, and South Africa.
Methods
Decision-analytic models were constructed using best available evidence sourced from unbundled data of an ongoing pilot trial assessing the effectiveness of high FiO2, published literature, and a cost survey in Nigeria, India, and South Africa. Effectiveness was measured as percentage of SSIs at 30 days after surgery, a healthcare perspective was adopted, and costs were reported in US dollars ($).
Results
High FiO2 may be cost-effective (cheaper and effective). In Nigeria, the average cost for high FiO2 was $216 compared with $222 for low FiO2 leading to a −$6 (95% confidence interval [CI]: −$13 to −$1) difference in costs. In India, the average cost for high FiO2 was $184 compared with $195 for low FiO2 leading to a −$11 (95% CI: −$15 to −$6) difference in costs. In South Africa, the average cost for high FiO2 was $1164 compared with $1257 for low FiO2 leading to a −$93 (95% CI: −$132 to −$65) difference in costs. The high FiO2 arm had few SSIs, 7.33% compared with 8.38% for low FiO2, leading to a −1.05 (95% CI: −1.14 to −0.90) percentage point reduction in SSIs.
Conclusion
High FiO2 could be cost-effective at preventing SSIs in the three countries but further data from large clinical trials are required to confirm this.

BackgroundTracheomalacia frequently develops in esophageal atresia patients (EA) especially in those with tracheoesophageal fistula (TEF). Conservative management has been the standard treatment; however, it was reported that delay in management could result in chronic lung conditions. Thus, early surgical interventions have been recently recommended.
Patients and Methods
We enrolled patients presented with type-C esophageal atresia, with concomitant moderate to severe tracheomalacia, who had their thoracoscopic intervention done during the study period 2019–2022. Early and intermediate- term outcomes were studied and compared to another cohort with mild or no tracheomalacia.
Results
During the allocated study period, 24 patients met the inclusion criteria for tracheopexy, but only 17 were followed up due to early demise of the other seven. During the follow-up period, 7/17 patients developed respiratory symptoms, which were attributed to esophageal stricture in 5 patients, recurrent TEF in 2 patients and one of them had residual tracheomalacia in addition to the developed recurrent TEF. The outcomes of the enrolled patients for tracheopexy were similar to those with no or mild tracheomalacia.
Conclusions
Primary posterior tracheopexy during the primary repair might be considered a safe and feasible option not only to alleviate respiratory symptoms secondary to tracheomalacia in EA patients, but also to decline the need of further surgical interventions. However, more comprehensive studies with long-term follow-ups are mandatory.

{Pancreatic surgery remains associated with high morbidity rates. Although postoperative mortality appears to have improved with specialization, the outcomes reported in the literature reflect the activity of highly specialized centres. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following pancreatic surgery worldwide.This was an international, prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional snapshot study of consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic operations worldwide in a 3-month interval in 2021. The primary outcome was postoperative mortality within 90 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships with Human Development Index (HDI) and other parameters.A total of 4223 patients from 67 countries were analysed. A complication of any severity was detected in 68.7 per cent of patients (2901 of 4223). Major complication rates (Clavien–Dindo grade at least IIIa) were 24, 18, and 27 per cent, and mortality rates were 10, 5, and 5 per cent in low-to-middle-, high-, and very high-HDI countries respectively. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate was 5.4 per cent (229 of 4223) overall, but was significantly higher in the low-to-middle-HDI group (adjusted OR 2.88, 95 per cent c.i. 1.80 to 4.48). The overall failure-to-rescue rate was 21 per cent; however, it was 41 per cent in low-to-middle- compared with 19 per cent in very high-HDI countries.Excess mortality in low-to-middle-HDI countries could be attributable to failure to rescue of patients from severe complications. The authors call for a collaborative response from international and regional associations of pancreatic surgeons to address management related to death from postoperative complications to tackle the global disparities in the outcomes of pancreatic surgery (NCT04652271; ISRCTN95140761).Pancreatic surgery can sometimes lead to health problems afterwards. Although some top hospitals report good results, it is not clear how patients are doing all over the world. The aim was to find out how people are recovering after pancreatic surgery in different countries, and to see whether where they live affects their health outcomes after pancreatic surgery. The health records of 4223 patients from 67 countries who had pancreatic surgery in a 3-month interval in 2021 were studied, especially looking at how many people faced serious complications or passed away within 90 days of the surgery. Almost 7 in 10 patients faced some health problems after operation. The chance of having a major health issue or dying after the surgery was higher in countries with fewer resources and less developed healthcare. For example, 10 of 100 patients died after the surgery in these countries, but only 5 of 100 patients did in richer countries. What stands out is that countries with fewer resources have a tougher time getting patients back to health when things go wrong after surgery. It is hoped that doctors and medical groups worldwide can work together to improve these outcomes and give everyone the best chance of recovering well after pancreatic surgery.}

Objectives: Traumatic intracranial hematomas represent a critical clinical situation where early detection and management are of utmost importance. Machine learning has been recently used in the detection of neuroradiological findings. Hence, it can be used in the detection of intracranial hematomas and furtherly initiate a management cascade of patient transfer, diagnostics, admission, and emergency intervention. We aim, here, to develop a diagnostic tool based on artificial intelligence to detect hematomas instantaneously, and automatically start a cascade of actions that support the management protocol depending on the early diagnosis. Materials and Methods: A plot was designed as a staged model: The first stage of initiating and training the machine with the provisional evaluation of its accuracy and the second stage of supervised use in a tertiary care hospital and a third stage of its generalization in primary and secondary care hospitals. Two datasets were used: CQ500, a public dataset, and our dataset collected retrospectively from our tertiary hospital. Results: A mean dice score of 0.83 was achieved on the validation set of CQ500. Moreover, the detection of intracranial hemorrhage was successful in 94% of cases for the CQ500 test set and 93% for our local institute cases. Poor detection was present in only 6–7% of the total test set. Moderate false-positive results were encountered in 18% and major false positives reached 5% for the total test set. Conclusion: The proposed approach for the early detection of acute intracranial hematomas provides a reliable outset for generating an automatically initiated management cascade in high-flow hospitals.

<h4>Objectives</h4>The outcomes of emergency general surgery (EGS) patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection remain unknown. With a multicenter study in 361 hospitals from 52 countries, we sought to study the mortality and pulmonary complications of COVID-19 patients undergoing EGS.<h4>Methods</h4>All patients aged ≥17 years and diagnosed preoperatively with COVID-19 between February and July 2020 were included. EGS was defined as the urgent/emergent performance of appendectomy, cholecystectomy, or laparotomy. The main outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day pulmonary complications (a composite of acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected mechanical ventilation, pneumonia). Planned subgroup analyses were performed based on presence of preoperative COVID-related respiratory findings (e.g. cough, dyspnea, need for oxygen therapy, chest radiology abnormality).<h4>Results</h4>A total of 1,045 patients were included, of which 40.1% were female and 50.0% were older than 50 years; 461 (44.1%), 145 (13.9%), and 439 (42.0%) underwent appendectomy, cholecystectomy, and laparotomy, respectively. The overall mortality rate was 15.1% (158/1,045) and the overall pulmonary complication rate was 32.9% (344/1,045); in the subgroup of laparotomy patients, the rates were 30.6% (134/438) and 59.2% (260/439), respectively. Subgroup analyses found mortality and pulmonary complication risk to be especially increased in patients with preoperative respiratory findings.<h4>Conclusion</h4>COVID-19 patients undergoing EGS have significantly high rates of mortality and pulmonary complications, but the risk is most pronounced in those with preoperative respiratory findings.<h4>Level of evidence</h4>Level III.

BACKGROUND:Mortality rates among surgical patients in Africa are double those of surgical patients in high-income countries. Internationally, there is a call to improve access to and safety of surgical and perioperative care. Perioperative research needs to be coordinated across Africa to positively impact perioperative mortality.

METHODS:

The aim of this study was to determine the top 10 perioperative research priorities for perioperative nurses in Africa, using a research priority-setting process. A Delphi technique with 4 rounds was used to establish consensus on the top 10 perioperative research priorities. In the first round, respondents submitted research priorities. Similar research priorities were amalgamated into single priorities when possible. In round 2, respondents ranked the priorities using a scale from 1 to 10 (of which 1 is the first/highest priority, and 10 is the last/lowest priority). The top 20 (of 31) were determined after round 2. In round 3, respondents ranked their top 10 priorities. The final round was an online discussion to reach consensus on the top 10 perioperative research priorities.

RESULTS:

A total of 17 perioperative nurses representing 12 African countries determined the top research priorities, which were: (1) strategies to translate and implement perioperative research into clinical practice in Africa, (2) creating a perioperative research culture and the tools, resources, and funding needed to conduct perioperative nursing research in Africa, (3) optimizing nurse-led postoperative pain management, (4) survey of operating theater and critical care resources, (5) perception of, and adherence to sterile field and aseptic techniques among surgeons in Africa (6) surgical staff burnout, (7) broad principles of infection control in surgical wards, (8) the role of interprofessional communication to promote clinical teamwork when caring for surgical patients, (9) effective implementation of the surgical safety checklist and measures of its impact, and (10) constituents of quality nursing care.

CONCLUSIONS:

These research priorities provide the structure for an intermediate-term research agenda for perioperative research in Africa.

Objective:This study aimed to determine whether remote wound reviews using telemedicine can be safely upscaled, and if standardised assessment tools are needed.

Summary Background Data:

Surgical site infection is the most common complication of surgery worldwide, and frequently occurs after hospital discharge. Evidence to support implementation of telemedicine during postoperative recovery will be an essential component of pandemic recovery.

Methods:

The primary outcome of this study was surgical site infection reported up to 30-days after surgery (SSI), comparing rates reported using telemedicine (telephone and/or video assessment) to those with in-person review. The first part of this study analysed primary data from an international cohort study of adult patients undergoing abdominal surgery who were discharged from hospital before 30-days after surgery. The second part combined this data with the results of a systematic review to perform a meta-analysis of all available data conducted in accordance with PRIMSA guidelines (PROSPERO:192596).

Results:

The cohort study included 15,358 patients from 66 countries (8069 high, 4448 middle, 1744 low income). Of these, 6907 (45.0%) were followed up using telemedicine. The SSI rate reported using telemedicine was slightly lower than with in-person follow-up (13.4% vs. 11.1%, P<0.001), which persisted after risk adjustment in a mixed-effects model (adjusted odds ratio: 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.84, P<0.001). This association was consistent across sensitivity and subgroup analyses, including a propensity-score matched model. In nine eligible non-randomised studies identified, a pooled mean of 64% of patients underwent telemedicine follow-up. Upon meta-analysis, the SSI rate reported was lower with telemedicine (odds ratio: 0.67, 0.47-0.94) than in-person (reference) follow-up (I2=0.45, P=0.12), although there a high risk of bias in included studies.

Conclusions:

Use of telemedicine to assess the surgical wound post-discharge is feasible, but risks underreporting of SSI. Standardised tools for remote assessment of SSI must be evaluated and adopted as telemedicine is upscaled globally.

Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis.Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism.Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and $73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and $75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality.For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially.

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality.Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children &lt;18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months.Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3–11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p&lt;0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p&lt;0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p&lt;0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality.Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer.Data are available upon reasonable request.

This is a retrospective comparative study that aimed to compare the short-term and intermediate-term outcomes of the one-stage and three-stage repair in the treatment of female neonates with a recto-vestibular fistula. Female patients who were presented with recto-vestibular fistula between 2017 and 2020 have been included in the study, and they were divided into two groups. Group A is the group of patients that underwent one-stage repair, and Group B is the group of patients that underwent three-stage repair. Short- and intermediate-term outcomes were recorded in both groups and the results were compared.

It is often difficult for clinicians in African low- and middle-income countries middle-income countries to access useful aggregated data to identify areas for quality improvement. The aim of this Delphi study was to develop a standardised perioperative dataset for use in a registry.

SummaryBackground
The 2015 Lancet Commission on global surgery identified surgery and anaesthesia as indispensable parts of holistic health-care systems. However, COVID-19 exposed the fragility of planned surgical services around the world, which have also been neglected in pandemic recovery planning. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel index to support local elective surgical system strengthening and address growing backlogs.
Methods
First, we performed an international consultation through a four-stage consensus process to develop a multidomain index for hospital-level assessment (surgical preparedness index; SPI). Second, we measured surgical preparedness across a global network of hospitals in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) to explore the distribution of the SPI at national, subnational, and hospital levels. Finally, using COVID-19 as an example of an external system shock, we compared hospitals' SPI to their planned surgical volume ratio (SVR; ie, operations for which the decision for surgery was made before hospital admission), calculated as the ratio of the observed surgical volume over a 1-month assessment period between June 6 and Aug 5, 2021, against the expected surgical volume based on hospital administrative data from the same period in 2019 (ie, a pre-pandemic baseline). A linear mixed-effects regression model was used to determine the effect of increasing SPI score.
Findings
In the first phase, from a longlist of 103 candidate indicators, 23 were prioritised as core indicators of elective surgical system preparedness by 69 clinicians (23 [33%] women; 46 [67%] men; 41 from HICs, 22 from MICs, and six from LICs) from 32 countries. The multidomain SPI included 11 indicators on facilities and consumables, two on staffing, two on prioritisation, and eight on systems. Hospitals were scored from 23 (least prepared) to 115 points (most prepared). In the second phase, surgical preparedness was measured in 1632 hospitals by 4714 clinicians from 119 countries. 745 (45·6%) of 1632 hospitals were in MICs or LICs. The mean SPI score was 84·5 (95% CI 84·1–84·9), which varied between HIC (88·5 [89·0–88·0]), MIC (81·8 [82·5–81·1]), and LIC (66·8 [64·9–68·7]) settings. In the third phase, 1217 (74·6%) hospitals did not maintain their expected SVR during the COVID-19 pandemic, of which 625 (51·4%) were from HIC, 538 (44·2%) from MIC, and 54 (4·4%) from LIC settings. In the mixed-effects model, a 10-point increase in SPI corresponded to a 3·6% (95% CI 3·0–4·1; p<0·0001) increase in SVR. This was consistent in HIC (4·8% [4·1–5·5]; p<0·0001), MIC (2·8 [2·0–3·7]; p<0·0001), and LIC (3·8 [1·3–6·7%]; p<0·0001) settings.
Interpretation
The SPI contains 23 indicators that are globally applicable, relevant across different system stressors, vary at a subnational level, and are collectable by front-line teams. In the case study of COVID-19, a higher SPI was associated with an increased planned surgical volume ratio independent of country income status, COVID-19 burden, and hospital type. Hospitals should perform annual self-assessment of their surgical preparedness to identify areas that can be improved, create resilience in local surgical systems, and upscale capacity to address elective surgery backlogs.
Funding
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery, NIHR Academy, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel Research UK, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, and Medtronic.

BackgroundThe CovidSurg-Cancer Consortium aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 in surgical patients and services for solid cancers at the start of the pandemic. The CovidSurg-Gynecologic Oncology Cancer subgroup was particularly concerned about the magnitude of adverse outcomes caused by the disrupted surgical gynecologic cancer care during the COVID-19 pandemic, which are currently unclear.
Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the changes in care and short-term outcomes of surgical patients with gynecologic cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesized that the COVID-19 pandemic had led to a delay in surgical cancer care, especially in patients who required more extensive surgery, and such delay had an impact on cancer outcomes.
Study Design
This was a multicenter, international, prospective cohort study. Consecutive patients with gynecologic cancers who were initially planned for nonpalliative surgery, were recruited from the date of first COVID-19-related admission in each participating center for 3 months. The follow-up period was 3 months from the time of the multidisciplinary tumor board decision to operate. The primary outcome of this analysis is the incidence of pandemic-related changes in care. The secondary outcomes included 30-day perioperative mortality and morbidity and a composite outcome of unresectable disease or disease progression, emergency surgery, and death.
Results
We included 3973 patients (3784 operated and 189 nonoperated) from 227 centers in 52 countries and 7 world regions who were initially planned to have cancer surgery. In 20.7% (823/3973) of the patients, the standard of care was adjusted. A significant delay (>8 weeks) was observed in 11.2% (424/3784) of patients, particularly in those with ovarian cancer (213/1355; 15.7%; P<.0001). This delay was associated with a composite of adverse outcomes, including disease progression and death (95/424; 22.4% vs 601/3360; 17.9%; P=.024) compared with those who had operations within 8 weeks of tumor board decisions. One in 13 (189/2430; 7.9%) did not receive their planned operations, in whom 1 in 20 (5/189; 2.7%) died and 1 in 5 (34/189; 18%) experienced disease progression or death within 3 months of multidisciplinary team board decision for surgery. Only 22 of the 3778 surgical patients (0.6%) acquired perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infections; they had a longer postoperative stay (median 8.5 vs 4 days; P<.0001), higher predefined surgical morbidity (14/22; 63.6% vs 717/3762; 19.1%; P<.0001) and mortality (4/22; 18.2% vs 26/3762; 0.7%; P<.0001) rates than the uninfected cohort.
Conclusion
One in 5 surgical patients with gynecologic cancer worldwide experienced management modifications during the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant adverse outcomes were observed in those with delayed or cancelled operations, and coordinated mitigating strategies are urgently needed.

BackgroundImproving women's health is a critical component of the sustainable development goals. Although obstetric outcomes in Africa have received significant focus, non-obstetric surgical outcomes for women in Africa remain under-examined.
Methods
We did a secondary analysis of the African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) and International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), two 7-day prospective observational cohort studies of outcomes after adult inpatient surgery. This sub-study focuses specifically on the analysis of the female, elective, non-obstetric, non-gynaecological surgical data collected during these two large multicentre studies. The African data from both cohorts are compared with international (non-African) outcomes in a risk-adjusted logistic regression analysis using a generalised linear mixed-effects model. The primary outcome was severe postoperative complications including in-hospital mortality in Africa compared with non-African outcomes.
Results
A total of 1698 African participants and 18 449 international participants met the inclusion criteria. The African cohort were younger than the international cohort with a lower preoperative risk profile. Severe complications occurred in 48 (2.9%) of 1671, and 431 (2.3%) of 18 449 patients in the African and international cohorts, respectively, with in-hospital mortality after severe complications of 23/48 (47.9%) in Africa and 78/431 (18.1%) internationally. Women in Africa had an adjusted odds ratio of 2.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.17–3.62; P=0.012) of developing a severe postoperative complication after elective non-obstetric, non-gynaecological surgery, compared with the international cohort.
Conclusions
Women in Africa have double the risk adjusted odds of severe postoperative complications (including in-hospital mortality) after elective non-obstetric, non-gynaecological surgery compared with the international incidence.

BackgroundImproving women's health is a critical component of the sustainable development goals. Although obstetric outcomes in Africa have received significant focus, non-obstetric surgical outcomes for women in Africa remain under-examined.
Methods
We did a secondary analysis of the African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) and International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), two 7-day prospective observational cohort studies of outcomes after adult inpatient surgery. This sub-study focuses specifically on the analysis of the female, elective, non-obstetric, non-gynaecological surgical data collected during these two large multicentre studies. The African data from both cohorts are compared with international (non-African) outcomes in a risk-adjusted logistic regression analysis using a generalised linear mixed-effects model. The primary outcome was severe postoperative complications including in-hospital mortality in Africa compared with non-African outcomes.
Results
A total of 1698 African participants and 18 449 international participants met the inclusion criteria. The African cohort were younger than the international cohort with a lower preoperative risk profile. Severe complications occurred in 48 (2.9%) of 1671, and 431 (2.3%) of 18 449 patients in the African and international cohorts, respectively, with in-hospital mortality after severe complications of 23/48 (47.9%) in Africa and 78/431 (18.1%) internationally. Women in Africa had an adjusted odds ratio of 2.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.17–3.62; P=0.012) of developing a severe postoperative complication after elective non-obstetric, non-gynaecological surgery, compared with the international cohort.
Conclusions
Women in Africa have double the risk adjusted odds of severe postoperative complications (including in-hospital mortality) after elective non-obstetric, non-gynaecological surgery compared with the international incidence.