Doaa Ghaith

Citation:

Marzouk, M., S. Azab, N. Elshaboury, A. Megahed, M. Metawie, M. E. Hawary, doaa ghaith, and {A. E. M. } Bayoumi, Modeling {COVID}-19 effects on {SDGs} using system dynamics in Egypt, , vol. 29, no. 39, pp. 59235–59246, 2022.

Abstract:

The coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) poses a significant threat to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals ({SDGs}). To address this challenge, a thorough examination of the pandemic’s influence on four {SDGs} in Egypt is presented in a system dynamic model. The addressed goals are related to no poverty ({SDG} 1), zero hunger ({SDG} 2), decent work and economic growth ({SDG} 8), and climate action ({SDG} 13). The model is simulated over 35 years extending from 2015 to 2050. Furthermore, a web-based interactive learning environment is developed to analyze the interdependencies among public health activities and study the impacts of possible intervention countermeasures or prevention policies. Indicators including poverty line, food insecurity, gross domestic product ({GDP}) growth rate, and greenhouse gas ({GHG}) emissions are evaluated to track Egypt’s performance in relation to {SDGs} 1, 2, 8, and 13. According to the simulation model, the poverty line will continue to decline until it reaches around 16% by 2050. According to the significant governmental efforts to follow its vision of 2030, Egypt can achieve a decreasing percentage of food insecurity, reaching 3% in 2030, and this percentage will continue to decrease until it reaches full sufficiency by 2050. The {GDP} growth rate will rise every year until it reaches 13.71% in 2050. With respect to climate, {GHG} emissions are predicted to fall to roughly 97 Mt {CO}2-equivalents by 2050. This approach revitalizes debates about the achievement of {SDGs} amid the crisis and acts as a powerful tool that aids decision-makers in identifying leverage points to avoid the long-term negative repercussions of the crisis on the economy, people, and environment.

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