Hend Ibrahim Shousha

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM: The study aim was to improve and validate the accuracy of the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores for use in a potential machine-learning (ML) method that accurately predicts the extent of liver fibrosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective multicenter study included 69,106 patients with chronic hepatitis C planned for antiviral therapy from January 2010-December 2014 with liver biopsy results. FIB-4 and APRI scores were calculated and their performance for predicting significant liver fibrosis (F3-F4) assessed against the Metavir scoring system. ML was used for feature selection and reduction to identify the most relevant attributes (CfsSubseteval/best first) for prediction.

RESULTS: In this study, 57,492 (83.2%) patients were F0-F2, and 11,615 (16.8%) patients were F3-F4. The revalidation of FIB-4 and APRI showed lower accuracy and higher disagreement with the biopsy results, with AUCs of 0.68 and 0.58, respectively. FIB-4 diagnosed fewer (14%) F3-F4 patients, and the high specificity and negative predictive values of FIB-4 and APRI reflected the low prevalence of F3-F4 in the study population. Out of 15 attributes, age (>35 years), AFP (>6.5 ng/ml), and platelet count (<150,000/mm) were the most relevant risk attributes, and patients with one or more of these risk factors were likely to be F3-F4, with a classification accuracy of ≤ 92% and receiver operating characteristics area of 0.74.

CONCLUSION: FIB-4 and APRI scores were not very accurate and missed diagnosing most of the F3-F4 patients. ML implementation improved medical decisions and minimized the required clinical data to three risk factors.

BACKGROUND: The national committee for control of viral hepatitis (NCCVH) in Egypt, settled by the Ministry of health, treated over one million patients in around 60 centers with chronological changes in drug combinations. This research aims to study the health care facilities and services provided by NCCVH treatment centers in Egypt and explore hinders faced.

METHODS: A cross-sectional operational research study. Multistage random sampling technique was applied for Egyptian governorates. From each stratum one governorate was chosen from which one center was randomly selected. Quality of recorded data for each center in the central server (Data-oriented parameter), newly designed score to assess the overall performance of the centers was retrieved from computer based recording system. A self-administered questionnaire was completed by the centers head.

RESULTS: This study included 24 treatment centers from urban, rural areas, Upper and Lower Egypt. The Upper centers showed the best completeness of follow-up records and the least compliance rates. None of the centers had 100% completeness of follow-up data. Proportion of SVR is minimally less than proportion of patient with known outcome in all treatment centers. A novel indicator standardizing the comparisons of performance of different facilities was introduced: Total number of physicians/total number of SVR patients with completed records. The highest response rate: Monfiya Governorate (Lower Egypt), Aswan (Upper Egypt), Completeness of follow-up records: Kalyoubia (Lower Egypt), Sohag governorate (Upper Egypt). The average administrative score was 64%.

CONCLUSION: Challenges of NCCVH program: overcrowdings, resistant sociocultural background among rural patients, limited accessibility for internal migrants and incompleteness of data entry are system lacking points. Strengths include, clear patient pathway, well-established database online application, well-trained physicians and treatment availability.

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a worldwide etiology of chronic hepatic insult particularly in Egypt. DNA-repair systems are responsible for maintaining genomic integrity by countering threats posed by DNA lesions. Deficiency in the repair capacity due to genetic alterations in DNA-repair genes can lead to genomic instability and increased risk of cancer development. The present work aimed at studying the possible association between XRCC1-G28152A (rs25487), XRCC3-C18067T (rs861539), and XRCC7-G6721T (rs7003908) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Egyptian population. The study was conducted on 100 newly diagnosed HCC patients and 100 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Laboratory workup revealed that all HCC patients have chronic hepatitis C viral infection. Genotyping of the studied SNPs was performed by real-time PCR. The heteromutant genotype of XRCC1 (GA) conferred an almost two-fold increased risk of HCC (OR ,  2.35; 95% CI, 1.33-4.04). Regarding XRCC7, the heteromutant (TG) genotype conferred a two-fold increased risk of HCC (OR ,  2.17; 95% CI, 1.23-3.82). Coinheritance of the polymorphic genotypes of XRCC1 and 7 was significantly higher in HCC cases than controls and was associated with an 11-fold increased risk of HCC (OR , 11.66; 95% CI,  2.77-49.13). The frequency of XRCC3 polymorphic genotypes in HCC patients was close to that of the controls.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The risk of hepatocarcinogenesis depends on background liver factors, of which fibrosis is a major determinant. Serum markers and scores are of increasing importance in non-invasive diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis. Our aim was to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a non-invasive fibrosis score calculated using routine patient data.

PATIENTS AND MTHODS: Our retrospective study included 1,291 hepatitis C related-HCC Egyptian patients (Group 1) recruited from the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University in the period between February 2009 and June 2016 and 1072 chronic hepatitis C-naïve patients (Group 2) with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) and cirrhosis (F4). King score, Fibro Q score, Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), AST to ALT ratio (AAR), LOK score, Göteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI), Fibro-α and Biotechnology Research Center (BRC) scores were calculated for all patients. Regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to calculate the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values for significant scores with the best cut-off for predicting HCC. A regression equation was used to calculate predicted probabilities of HCC using the following variables; age, gender, haemoglobin, international normalised ratio (INR), albumin and alpha fetoprotein. The appropriate score cut-off points yielding optimal sensitivity and specificity were determined by ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS: There was a highly significant difference between the two groups for all calculated scores (P = 0.0001). Our new score, the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Multidisciplinary Clinic-Cairo University (HMC-CU) score (Logit probability of HCC =  - 2.524 + 0.152*age - 0.121*Hb - 0.696*INR - 1.059*Alb + 0.022*AFP + 0.976*Sex. Male = 1, Female = 0), with a cut-off of 0.559 was superior to other scores for predicting HCC, having a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 80.6%.

CONCLUSION: The HMC-CU score is a promising, easily calculated, accurate, cost-effective score for HCC prediction in chronic HCV patients with advanced liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Considered as one of the most recurrent types of liver malignancy, Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) needs to be assessed in a non-invasive way. The objective of the current study is to develop prediction models for Chronic Hepatitis C (CHC)-related HCC using machine learning techniques.

METHODS: A dataset, for 4423 CHC patients, was investigated to identify the significant parameters for predicting HCC presence. In this study, several machine learning techniques (Classification and regression tree, alternating decision tree, reduce pruning error tree and linear regression algorithm) were used to build HCC classification models for prediction of HCC presence.

RESULTS: Age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), alkaline phosphate (ALP), albumin, and total bilirubin attributes were statistically found to be associated with HCC presence. Several HCC classification models were constructed using several machine learning algorithms. The proposed HCC classification models provide adequate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and high accuracy of HCC diagnosis. AUROC ranges between 95.5% and 99%, plus overall accuracy between 93.2% and 95.6%.

CONCLUSION: Models with simplistic factors have the power to predict the existence of HCC with outstanding performance.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying de-novo hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is still under investigation. This work aims to study P53 and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) as possible diagnostics of de-novo hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following DAAs in comparison to alpha-fetoprotein (AFP).

METHOD: This case-control study included 166 patients with liver cirrhosis divided into group-1: patients without HCC (n = 50), group-2: patients with de-novo HCC following DAAs, and achieved sustained virological response (n = 50), and group-3: patients with HCC without DAAs (n = 66). P53 antibody and HGF were determined using a quantitative sandwich enzyme immunoassay technique (Cusabio Co, Houston, USA).

RESULTS: Patients with HCC showed significantly higher HGF. Patients with de-novo HCC following DAAs had significantly higher P53 than HCC without DAAs (P < 0.0001). The multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the P53 levels were significantly associated with susceptibility to de-novo HCC (P value = 0.004). The best overall formula was constructed for HCC diagnosis by entering significant markers into the regression model. A three markers model was developed = (1.22 + AFP X 0.002 + HGF X 0.001 + P53 X 0.001). The medians (percentiles) of combined three markers were 1.8 (1.0-2.1) in liver cirrhosis and 2.2 (2.0-2.9) in all HCC (P < 0.00001). The AUC of combined markers was greater than a single marker. The AUC was 0.87 to differentiate HCC from liver cirrhosis; AUC 0.91 to differentiate de-novo HCC after DAAs from liver cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION: P53 may serve as a diagnostic marker for de-novo HCC after DAAs therapy. HGF may serve as a diagnostic marker for HCC but not specific for de-novo HCC after DAAs therapy.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: To investigate whether the measurement of liver stiffness (LSM) using fibroscan and the serum Cancer Stem Cells (CSC): Ep-CAM and cytokeratin-19, could predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and their impact on clinical outcome and overall survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a prospective study, including 179 HCV-related HCC patients. All patients were treated following the BCLC guidelines. All HCC patients had transient elastography, measurements of Ep-CAM and cytokeratin-19 before and six months post-treatment. We looked for predictors of recurrence and performed a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS: TACE was the most common procedure (77.1%), followed by microwave ablation (15.6%). Complete ablation was achieved in 97 patients; 55 of them developed HCC recurrence. After treatment, LSM increased significantly with a significant reduction in CSCs levels in complete and partial response groups. The median time to observe any recurrence was 14 months. LSM increased significantly post-treatment in patients with recurrence versus no recurrence. Higher levels of CSCs were recorded at baseline and post-treatment in patients with recurrence but without statistical significance. We used univariate analysis to predict the time of recurrence by determining baseline CK-19 and platelet levels as the key factors, while the multivariate analysis determined platelet count as a single factor. The univariate analysis for prediction of overall survival included several factors, LSM and EpCAM (baseline and post-ablation) among them, while multivariate analysis included factors such as Child score B and incomplete ablation.

CONCLUSION: Dynamic changes were observed in LSM and CSCs levels in response to HCC treatment and tumour recurrence. Child score and complete ablation are factors that significantly affect survival.

OBJECTIVES: The introduction of direct acting antivirals (DAAs) has resulted in very high sustained virological response rates (SVR) in patients with chronic hepatitis-C (CHC). There are still a minority who fails to achieve SVR. This study aims to identify simple factors associated with nonresponse to DAAs using routine pretreatment workup.

METHODS: A retrospective study included 10 655 CHC patients who were candidates for anti-viral therapy. Pretreatment demographics, laboratory results, ultrasonography and FIB-4were obtained.

RESULTS: At post-treatment week 4, 10 495 patients (98.5%) were responders and 160 (1.5%) were non-responders. About 50.6% of non-responders were males and 61.3% were cirrhotic. Non-responders had significantly higher baseline BMI, liver enzymes, AFP and a significantly lower albumin, platelet count by univariate analysis ((P < 0.001). Sex, previous treatment, BMI, liver cirrhosis, AST, Albumin and platelet counts were the independent predictors of non-response. At post-treatment week 12, HCV-PCR results were available only for 7259 patients and 210 (2.9%) were non-responders. 54.8% of non-responders were cirrhotic and 51.4% were males. Non-responders had significantly higher AST, AFP and INR and a significantly lower albumin level, platelet count by univariate analysis (P < 0.05). Sex, previous treatment, AST, Albumin, WBC and platelet counts were the independent predictors of non-response. SVR-4 among treatment naive patients was 98.6% while among treatment experienced was 96.8%. SVR-12 among treatment naive patients was 97.9% while among treatment experienced was 87.9%.Cirrhotics had SVR-4 rate 97.7% and SVR-12 rate 96.21%.

CONCLUSION: Routine pre-treatment work up for HCV G4 patients receiving DAAs can help in prediction of non-response.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting studies were proposed either suggested or denied the relationship between early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence and the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for chronic hepatitis C management AIM OF THE STUDY: To evaluate HCC recurrence rate post-DAAs and potential predictive factors.Study This prospective cohort study included all HCC patients achieved complete response attending our multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Cairo University, from November 2013 to February 2018. Group I (60 patients) who received DAAs after HCC ablation and group II (273 patients) who were DAAs-untreated. We studied factors that could play a role in HCC recurrence.

RESULTS: The sustained virological response rate was 88.3% among DAA-treated patients. HCC recurrence rate was 45% in the post-DAA group vs. 19% in the non-DAAs group; P < 0.001. Mean survival was significantly higher in the post-DAA group (34.23 ± 16.16 vs. 23.92 ± 13.99 months respectively; P value <0.001). There was a significant correlation between HCC recurrence rate and age, male gender, mean size of tumors and time interval between complete HCC ablation and occurrence of HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSION: Our study reports high rate of HCC recurrence post-DAA therapy in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization but not in those treated with curative measures. DAA therapy after curative treatment for HCC led to significantly earlier HCC recurrence, which correlated with specific clinic-pathologic features in our prospective single-institution study. However, future independent prospective randomized studies are warranted to evaluate this correlation which may lead to a change in the current standard-of-care approach to patients with hepatitis C virus-related HCC.

BACKGROUND: Liver stiffness increases after the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Transient elastography for liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using fibroscan is a simple noninvasive method of proven efficacy. This study aims to assess the changes in LSM following HCC treatment.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study included 150 patients with hepatitis C virus related HCC attending the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Kasr Al-Ainy Hospital between March 2014 and October 2015 who underwent either transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or microwave ablation (MWA). Baseline LSM was carried out 3 and 6 months after treatment. The response rate was calculated according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria; overall survival and LSM changes were then compared between the two procedures.

RESULTS: MWA showed higher rates of complete ablation (77.4%) than did TACE (31.7%) (P=0.004). Increase in LSM 3 and 6 months after treatment was statistically significant in the TACE group (P<0.001) but not in the MWA group (P=0.4). Patients who showed complete ablation had statistically significant lower baseline LSM than those with incomplete ablation, and their 6 months increase in LSM was also significantly lower. Logistic regression revealed that with each unit increase in baseline stiffness, 3% reduction in the odds of complete ablation is expected, and this did not change after controlling for the type of treatment. Child-Pugh class, number, and size of HCCs were our independent prognostic factors by Cox proportional analysis.

CONCLUSION: The increase in LSM is significant after TACE than after MWA. Moreover, lower pre-ablation LSM is a predictor of complete ablation.

INTRODUCTION: Scarce reports have commented on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) behavior after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

AIM: To analyze differences in tumor behavior between patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced HCC and were either treated or not using DAAs.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This case-control study includes patients with HCV-related HCC who received generic DAAs (group I) and all non-DAA treated patients with HCC who presented to our clinic during the same period (group II). Patient and tumor characteristics, treatment types and outcome were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS: Group I included 89 patients and group II included 207 patients. No significant difference was detected between groups regarding HCC number or size. Group I showed a more infiltrative HCC pattern, whereas group II had more circumscribed and delineated lesions. The incidence of portal vein thrombosis and significant lymphadenopathy was significantly higher in group I (P=0.03 and 0.03, respectively). Serum levels of α-fetoprotein were significantly higher in group I (P=0.02). These factors significantly affected the response to HCC management (P=0.03). Incidence of complete responses were 47.2 and 49.8% for groups I and II, respectively, whereas incomplete responses were 12.4 and 25.1%, respectively. Supportive treatment was applied to 40.4% in group I and 25.1% in group II.

CONCLUSION: HCC behavior was more aggressive in DAA-treated patients regarding portal vein thrombosis, malignant lymphadenopathy, and HCC imaging characteristics, which affected the chance of ablation and the treatment response.

INTRODUCTION: Survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differs between regions and countries according to the different underlying factors and the degree of standard of care that enables early diagnosis and management. Our aim was to identify the most potent predictive factors of survival in Egyptian HCC patients receiving curative or palliative treatments.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 1302 HCC patients attending the HCC multidisciplinary clinic, Cairo University, between February 2009 and December 2016. Clinical, laboratory, tumor characteristics, and treatment data were collected. Prognostic scores for each of the treatment categories, curative or palliative, were developed using routine laboratory tests.

RESULTS: Patients were predominantly men, mean age 57.79±7.56 years. All cases developed HCC in addition to cirrhosis, mainly hepatitis C virus-related (88.2%). Most of the patients were Child-Pugh A (56.8%) or B (34.4%) and had single lesions. Transarterial chemoembolization was the most common line of treatment (42.08%). The overall median survival was 18.3 months from the date of diagnosis. Cigarette smoking, Child-Pugh score, performance status, number and size of the focal lesion, α-fetoprotein, and application of a specific treatment, particularly curative treatment, were the significant independent prognostic factors for survival. We found no impact of diabetes mellitus or hypertension on survival. Multidisciplinary HCC clinic predictive scores of survival after palliative and curative treatments were developed including independent prognostic factors, age, and portal vein status.

CONCLUSION: A new Egyptian prognostic score of tumor and patients factors can predict the survival of patients with HCC after palliative and curative treatments.

Tumor necrosis factor related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) plays an important role in many cancers including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study is to investigate the association of the DR4 polymorphisms C626G (Thr209Arg, rs20575) and A683C (Glu228Ala, rs20576) with the occurrence of HCC in Egyptian patients chronically infected with HCV. The study included 80 patients with HCV-related HCC (group 1) and 80 patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis (group 2) who are naïve to treatment. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded. Genotyping of TRAIL receptor DR4 polymorphism C626G rs20575 and A683C rs20576 SNP was done by Real-Time PCR using taqman probes technology. The mean age of HCC patients was 57.6 ± 8.4 years with 62 patients (77.5%) were males. While group 2 mean age was 49.5 ± 10.29 years with 50% were males. The frequency distribution of rs20575 genotypes showed a statistically significant difference between the two studied groups (P = 0.02), the carriers of the C allele were 2.01 times more likely to develop HCC than the carriers of the G allele (P = 0.003), while no significant difference in rs20576 genotypes distribution was found between the studied groups (P = 0.680). On combining the carriers of C allele of rs20575 and the carriers of A allele of rs20576, a significant difference was detected (P > 0.001) with 2.85 higher risk of HCC development in patients who carried both genetic risk alleles simultaneously. The significant difference in DR4 polymorphisms among HCC and cirrhotic patients suggests their role as potential risk factors of HCC development.

Direct Acting Agents (DAAs) have high cure rate but still lack the knowledge of their effect on hepatic steatosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Controlled Attenuation Parameter (CAP), evaluated with transient elastography, could help in assessment of steatosis grades. We aim to evaluate the effect of DAAs on BMI and steatosis in CHC using CAP. This cohort study included 155 CHC Egyptian patients divided into three groups according to the DAAs regimens. All patients were subjected to pre-treatment and 3-months post-treatment evaluation including BMI, laboratory workup and liver stiffness measurement with simultaneous CAP determination using the (FibroScan®) M probe. Patients mean age was 45.78 ± 11.6 years, 60.6% were females, mean BMI 26.63 ± 2.75 and 18.1% were cirrhotic. Baseline assessment revealed no steatosis in 43.9%, 32.9% had mild-moderate steatosis and 23.2% had severe steatosis. The overall sustained virological response 12 was 93.6%. Follow-up revealed stationary steatosis in 56.7% of patients and regression in 21.3%. Mean pre-treatment CAP were significantly lower in responders 244.9 ± 62.4 dB/m versus non-responders; 300 ±28.4 dB/m (P = 0.04). ROC curve delineated 273 dB/m as best cutoff for detection of responders with an AUC of 0.801, sensitivity 68.2%, and specificity 100%. BMI significantly increased after treatment (P = 0.004) particularly in patients with worsened steatosis (P = 0.001). Steatosis significantly correlated with BMI (r = 0.3, P value = < 0.001). DAAs causes a significant change in steatosis grade in a subset of treated patients. Pretreatment CAP was significantly lower in responders. BMI significantly increases following treatment particularly in patients with worsened steatosis.

IL28B single nucleotide polymorphism (rs12979860) is an etiology-independent predictor of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatic fibrosis. Data mining is a method of predictive analysis which can explore tremendous volumes of information from health records to discover hidden patterns and relationships. The current study aims to evaluate and compare the prediction accuracy of scoring system like aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index versus data mining for the prediction of HCV-related advanced fibrosis. This retrospective study included 427 patients with chronic hepatitis C. We used data mining analysis to construct a decision tree by reduced error (REP) technique, followed by Auto-WEKA tool to select the best classifier out of 39 algorithms to predict advanced fibrosis. APRI and FIB-4 had sensitivity-specificity parameters of 0.523-0.831 and 0.415-0.917, respectively. REPTree algorithm was able to predict advanced fibrosis with sensitivity of 0.749, specificity of 0.729, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area of 0.796. Out of the 16 attributes, IL28B genotype was selected by the REPTree as the best predictor for advanced fibrosis. Using Auto-WEKA, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural model was selected as the best predictive algorithm with sensitivity of 0.825, specificity of 0.811, and ROC area of 0.880. Thus, MLP is better than APRI, FIB-4, and REPTree for predicting advanced fibrosis for patients with chronic hepatitis C.

INTRODUCTION: A recent appearance of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) led to a surge in hepatitis C virus (HCV) management. Nowadays, a large proportion of treated patients have cirrhosis with a retained possibility to develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after complete cure. We aimed to study tumoral differences between patients who developed HCC after DAAs as either a recurrence or de-novo HCC.

METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 89 patients who presented to our HCC multidisciplinary clinic with HCC lesions following DAA therapy. A total of 45 patients had complete response to HCC according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors before DAAs intake. Another 44 patients developed de-novo lesions after DAA treatment. Both groups were compared regarding their baseline characteristics, tumor criteria, response to DAAs as well response to HCC treatment.

RESULTS: Both groups showed no significant difference regarding their baseline characteristics (age, sex, Child-Pugh score, and performance status) or response to DAAs (P=0.5). No significant difference was present between groups according to number, site, and size of lesions. However, time elapsed between the end of DAAs therapy and first diagnosis of HCC was significantly longer in de-novo group (15.22±16.39 months) versus recurrence group (6.76±5.1 months) (P=0.008). In addition, response to ablation was significantly better in de-novo lesions compared with recurrent HCC (P=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS: Although de-novo HCC lesions significantly developed later than recurrent lesions in DAAs-treated patients, their response rates were significantly better. No differences were detected between both groups in their response to DAAs and their tumoral characteristics.

INTRODUCTION: Steatosis is a documented feature of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). There is an association between steatosis decrease and fibrosis progression. The association between steatosis and advanced fibrosis versus hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development has not been precisely evaluated. The controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) was applied as an immediate and efficient process to detect and quantify hepatic steatosis with adequate accuracy.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess the difference in liver steatosis between patients with hepatitis C virus-related advanced hepatic fibrosis versus HCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 130 patients with HCC, attending the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Cairo University, and 54 patients with CHC between October 2015 and June 2016. Clinical and laboratory characteristics were recorded. Liver stiffness and CAP were obtained by using the FibroScan 502, touch.

RESULTS: All included patients had genotype 4. The mean CAP value was significantly lower in HCC (209.5±57.1 dB/m) versus CHC (259.9±54.9 dB/m). Receiver operating characteristic curve revealed an area under the curve of 0.75 for the differentiation between groups. At a cutoff value of 237 dB/m, sensitivity was 72.3%, specificity was 70.7%, positive likelihood ratio was 2.5, and negative likelihood ratio was 0.4 in the differentiation between CHC versus HCC. Logistic regression analysis revealed an odds ratio of 6.4 for the diagnosis of HCC with CAP of less than 237 dB/m. Multivariate analysis, controlling for age, sex, BMI, triglycerides, and cholesterol levels, revealed a significantly increased odds for HCC diagnosis (odds ratio: 4.3, P=0.006).

CONCLUSION: The progression of CHC is associated with a decrease in steatosis, particularly toward advanced fibrosis and HCC. Steatosis reduction less than 237 dB/m is likely to be associated with HCC.

Tumor necrosis factor related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) plays an important role in many cancers including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study is to investigate the association of the DR4 polymorphisms C626G (Thr209Arg, rs20575) and A683C (Glu228Ala, rs20576) with the occurrence of HCC in Egyptian patients chronically infected with HCV. The study included 80 patients with HCV-related HCC (group 1) and 80 patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis (group 2) who are naïve to treatment. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded. Genotyping of TRAIL receptor DR4 polymorphism C626G rs20575 and A683C rs20576 SNP was done by Real-Time PCR using taqman probes technology. The mean age of HCC patients was 57.6 ± 8.4 years with 62 patients (77.5%) were males. While group 2 mean age was 49.5 ± 10.29 years with 50% were males. The frequency distribution of rs20575 genotypes showed a statistically significant difference between the two studied groups (P = 0.02), the carriers of the C allele were 2.01 times more likely to develop HCC than the carriers of the G allele (P = 0.003), while no significant difference in rs20576 genotypes distribution was found between the studied groups (P = 0.680). On combining the carriers of C allele of rs20575 and the carriers of A allele of rs20576, a significant difference was detected (P > 0.001) with 2.85 higher risk of HCC development in patients who carried both genetic risk alleles simultaneously. The significant difference in DR4 polymorphisms among HCC and cirrhotic patients suggests their role as potential risk factors of HCC development.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma is a leading cause of cancer-related death in Africa, but there is still no comprehensive description of the current status of its epidemiology in Africa. We therefore initiated an African hepatocellular carcinoma consortium aiming to describe the clinical presentation, management, and outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Africa.

METHODS: We did a multicentre, multicountry, retrospective observational cohort study, inviting investigators from the African Network for Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases to participate in the consortium to develop hepatocellular carcinoma research databases and biospecimen repositories. Participating institutions were from Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Clinical information-demographic characteristics, cause of disease, liver-related blood tests, tumour characteristics, treatments, last follow-up date, and survival status-for patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma between Aug 1, 2006, and April 1, 2016, were extracted from medical records by participating investigators. Because patients from Egypt showed differences in characteristics compared with patients from the other countries, we divided patients into two groups for analysis; Egypt versus other African countries. We undertook a multifactorial analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify factors affecting survival (assessed from the time of diagnosis to last known follow-up or death).

FINDINGS: We obtained information for 2566 patients at 21 tertiary referral centres (two in Egypt, nine in Nigeria, four in Ghana, and one each in the Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Sudan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda). 1251 patients were from Egypt and 1315 were from the other African countries (491 from Ghana, 363 from Nigeria, 277 from Ivory Coast, 59 from Cameroon, 51 from Sudan, 33 from Ethiopia, 21 from Tanzania, and 20 from Uganda). The median age at which hepatocellular carcinoma was diagnosed significantly later in Egypt than the other African countries (58 years [IQR 53-63] vs 46 years [36-58]; p<0·0001). Hepatitis C virus was the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt (1054 [84%] of 1251 patients), and hepatitis B virus was the leading cause in the other African countries (597 [55%] of 1082 patients). Substantially fewer patients received treatment specifically for hepatocellular carcinoma in the other African countries than in Egypt (43 [3%] of 1315 vs 956 [76%] of 1251; p<0·0001). Among patients with survival information (605 [48%] of 1251 in Egypt and 583 [44%] of 1315 in other African countries), median survival was shorter in the other African countries than in Egypt (2·5 months [95% CI 2·0-3·1] vs 10·9 months [9·6-12·0]; p<0·0001). Factors independently associated with poor survival were: being from an African countries other than Egypt (hazard ratio [HR] 1·59 [95% CI 1·13-2·20]; p=0·01), hepatic encephalopathy (2·81 [1·72-4·42]; p=0·0004), diameter of the largest tumour (1·07 per cm increase [1·04-1·11]; p<0·0001), log α-fetoprotein (1·10 per unit increase [1·02-1·20]; p=0·0188), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 3-4 (2·92 [2·13-3·93]; p<0·0001) and no treatment (1·79 [1·44-2·22]; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION: Characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma differ between Egypt and other African countries. The proportion of patients receiving specific treatment in other African countries was low and their outcomes were extremely poor. Urgent efforts are needed to develop health policy strategies to decrease the burden of hepatocellular carcinoma in Africa.

FUNDING: None.

Objective: Hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein thrombosis is considered a relative contraindication for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic factors and management in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein thrombosis (PVT). Methods: Between February 2011 and February 2015, 140 patients presented to our specialized multidisciplinary HCC clinic. All were assessed by imaging at regular intervals for tumor response and the data compared with baseline laboratory and imaging characteristics obtained before treatment. Results: At the end of the follow up in February 2015, 78 (55.7%) of the 140 patients had died, 33.1% in the 1st year and 20.7% in the 2nd year. The overall median survival was 10 months from the date of diagnosis. Clinical progression was noted in 45 (32.1%). Univariate analysis revealed that, the Child-Pugh score, the performance states (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group “ECOG” 0-1) and the presence of ascites exerted non-significant affects on survival. Similarly, the serum albumen level and AFP >400 ng/ml were without influence. However, patients with =>2 tumors, abdominal lymphadenopathy and serum bilirubin >2mg/dl had a significantly worse prognosis. Specific treatment significantly increased survival compared to patients left untreated (P value = 0.027). Conclusion: Application of specific treatments (curative or palliative) significantly increased survival in HCC patients with PVT. TACE can be considered as a promising procedure for unresectable PVT-associated HCCs. The main predictors of survival in our study were the serum bilirubin level and specific treatment application.

Introduction: Local ablative therapy and trans arterial chemoembolization (TACE) are applied to ablate non resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Combination of both techniques has proven to be more effective. We aimed to study combined ablation techniques and assess survival benefit comparing TACE with radiofrequency (RFA) versus TACE with microwave (MWA) techniques. Methods: We retrospectively studied 22 patients who were ablated using TACE-RFA and 45 with TACE-MWA. All were classified as Child A-B and lesions did not exceed 5 cm in diameter. TACE was followed within two weeks by either RFA or MWA. We recorded total and partial ablation rates and complication rates. Survival analysis was then performed. Results: TACE-MWA showed a higher tendency to provide complete response rates than TACE-RFA (P 0.06). This was particularly evident with lesions sized 3-5 cm (P 0.01). Rates of complications showed no significant difference between the groups. Overall median survival was 27 months. The overall actuarial probability of survival was 80.1% at 1 year, 55% at 2 years, and 36.3% at 3 years. The recurrence free survival at 1 year, 2years and 3 years for the TACE-RFA group was 70%, 42% and 14% respectively and for TACE-MWA group 81.2%, 65.1% and 65.1% without any significant difference (P 0.1). In relation to the size of focal lesions, no statistically significant difference in the survival rates was detected between the groups. Conclusion: TACE-MWA led to better response rates than TACE-RFA with tumors 3-5 cm, with no difference in survival rates.

BACKGROUND: In the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, only sorafenib is suggested for HCC patients having performance status (PS) 1 or 2 even if they have treatable lesions. In the current study, we aimed to explore the outcome of using aggressive treatment for HCC patients with PS 1 and 2.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five hundred and twenty four patients with HCC were enrolled in this study and divided into 2 groups: 404 PS 1 and 120 PS 2. Of the included 524 patients, 136 recceived non-aggressive supportive treatment and sorafenib, while 388 patients were offered aggressive treatment in the form of surgical resection, transplantation, percutaneous ablation, trans-arterial chemoembolization and/or chemoperfusion. All the patients were followed up for a period of 2 years to determine their survival.

RESULTS: Most HCC patients were CHILD A and B grades (89.4% versus 85.0%, for PS1 and PS2, respectively). Patients with PS1 were significantly younger. Out of the enrolled 524 patients, 388 were offered aggressive treatment, 253 (65.2%) having their lesions fully ablated, 94 (24.2%) undergoing partial ablation and 41 patients with no ablation (10.6%). The median survival of the patients with PS 1 who were offered aggressive treatment was 20 months versus 9 months only for those who were offered supportive treatment and sorafenib (<0.001). Regarding HCC patients with PS 2, the median survivals were similarly 19.7 months versus 8.7 months only (<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive treatment of HCC patients with PS 1 and 2 significantly improves their survival. Revising the BCLC guidelines regarding such patients is recommended.

OBJECTIVE: Thermal ablative therapies continue to be favored as a safe and effective treatment for patients with non-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Percutaneous microwave ablative therapy, which is a relatively new technique, has the advantage in providing faster ablation of large tumors. This study aimed to evaluate microwave ablation in the treatment of large HCC (5-7 cm) and to assess its effect on local tumor progression, prognostic outcome and patients' survival.

METHODS: In all, 26 patients with large HCC lesions (5-7 cm) were managed in the multidisciplinary clinic of Kasr Al Ainy University hospital using microwave ablation. The treatment was performed with the patient under conscious sedation and analgesia and ultrasonography-guided using an HS AMICA microwave machine operating at frequency of 2450 MHz and a power up to 100 W. Multiple needle insertions were made in one or two sessions according to the size of the lesion. The complete ablation rate, local tumor progression and patients' overall survival were analyzed, and the efficacy and safety of MWA was evaluated.

RESULTS: Complete ablation was achieved in 19/26 (73.1%). Local tumor progression was recorded in five treated lesions (19.2%). Distant tumor progression within the liver was recorded in six patients (23.1%), with a mean survival of 21.5 months. No procedure-related major complications or deaths were observed.

CONCLUSIONS: Percutaneous microwave ablation is safe and effective in the treatment of large HCC tumors. Patients' survival and local tumor control were acceptable.